The evolution of the energy system could substantially increase material demands, but material supplies might lag, suggesting implications for the scale and pace of energy technology deployment.  We develop a new capability in the Global Change Analysis Model to endogenously quantify demands for 12 materials–including critical minerals–in the power sector and evaluate the impacts of material supply constraints on power sector evolution.  From our scenario results, if future supplies of the 12 materials in the global power sector are constrained to historical growth rates, investments in the global power sector through 2050 reduce by 12% and 2050 electricity prices worldwide increase by 14%–41% relative to an unconstrained supply case. Intensified impacts on investments (-34%) and electricity prices (50%–101%) are observed in our modeling of a RCP1.9 scenario, which may be alleviated with material supplies growing at three times historical rates. Technological innovation that reduces material intensities could also mitigate these impacts. Our findings suggest that ensuring a stable and adequate material supply will be critical for maintaining the resilience and security of the future energy system. It is also important to account for material supply availability in energy system modeling and planning.  

This research underscores a critical issue: the future of the power sector hinges on the availability of essential materials. As our energy system is increasingly reliant on renewable resources and battery storage technologies, the demands for various materials are expected to surge. Future supply constraints on these materials could hinder the capacity expansion of power sector technologies. In this study, we developed a new capability in a multi-sector model to quantify future material demand of the power sector and evaluate the impact of material supply constraints on the deployment of power sector technologies. Our findings suggest that ensuring a stable and adequate material supply will be critical for maintaining the resilience and security of the future energy system. This also highlights the need to account for material supply availability in energy system modeling and planning.  

Qiu, Y., Iyer, G., Graham, N., Binsted, M., Wise, M., Patel, P., & Yarlagadda, B. (2024). The impacts of material supply availability on a transitioning electric power sector. Cell Reports Sustainability, 1(10), 100221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsus.2024.100221